SoCo Strategies recently looked at five different Congressional Republican primaries to gauge Donald Trump's potential affect on the upcoming 2022 midterm elections. What we found was eye opening.
POLLING IN DIVERSE PRIMARY SAMPLE SHOWS THE POWER OF DONALD TRUMP’S ENDORSEMENT
Members of Congress Jaime Herrera Beutler, Liz Cheney, and Tom Rice in serious trouble
Las Vegas, NV – Today, Zachary Moyle of SoCo Strategies released results of a multi-state poll as part of a new nonpartisan political project, ThePollingProfessor.com. The poll focused on testing the power of Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement in Republican primary elections and the potential consequences for Republican members of Congress who voted to impeach Trump. The results demonstrate two emerging narratives.
The first clear takeaway was that Republican members of Congress who voted to impeach Trump stand little to no chance of winning their primaries. In Washington’s Third Congressional District, Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler trails by double digits and in Wyoming’s At Large Congressional District Rep. Liz Cheney’s top challenger has more than double her ballot number. In South Carolina Rep. Tom Rice polled below 20% and barely led a multi candidate Republican primary.
Washington CD03 Joe Kent 40.92% Jaime Herrera Beutler 29.16%
Wyoming At Large Harriet Hageman 38.64% Liz Cheney 18.80%
South Carolina CD07 Tom Rice 19.18% Graham Allen 18.54%
While Cheney told Trump to “bring it” in Wyoming earlier this year, another member who voted to impeach Trump, Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzales, decided around the same time not seek re-election after seeing similar numbers in Ohio. This polling confirms that Herrera Beutler, Cheney, and Rice may want to consider doing the same.
The second takeaway was that Donald Trump’s actual endorsement in a Republican Primary is a game changer that pushes challengers over the top. This was demonstrated by the difference in ballots between South Carolina and the other two races involving sitting members of Congress. In Washington and Wyoming, Joe Kent and Harriet Hageman have official endorsements from Trump. In South Carolina, where the top two candidates head to a run-off election, Trump has yet to make an actual endorsement. While Tom Rice and Liz Cheney had almost identical ballot numbers, Cheney trailed the Trump endorsed Hageman by nearly 20 points. Meanwhile, in South Carolina Tom Rice was essentially tied with Graham Allen, who while a vocal Trump advocate, does not currently have a formal endorsement from Trump.
“We selected diverse locations to see if the results would be consistent. The results demonstrate that regardless of geographic campaign, current sentiment is the same.” said Moyle. “An endorsement from President Trump is almost paramount. Voters support President Trump by overwhelming margins, and anti-Trump candidates are not faring well.”
SoCo Strategies also surveyed two open red seats for context and found that in both, the candidate who appeared to be the most vocal Pro-Trump supporter was leading their field by a substantial amount. In Georgia’s newly drawn 10th Congressional District, trucking company executive Mike Collins, an early verbal Trump supporter who recently said that “the time for compromise and civility is over,” led his next closest challenger, Former Congressman Paul Broun, by more than double. In the Florida’s 7th Congressional District, State Representative Anthony Sabatini, who recently stated that “every Republican who voted for the infrastructure bill must be eliminated,” had a higher ballot number than the entire rest of the primary field combined.
Georgia CD10 Mike Collins 25.59%
Paul Broun 10.39%
The Field 19.55%
Florida CD07 Anthony Sabatini 12.63%
Cory Mills 3.90%
The Field 7.32%
While Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina do not feature a Trump endorsement, they do have several Pro Trump candidates. In each of those races, it appears the most active and verbal one is leading their next closest challenger by more than double. For example, while Graham Allen in South Carolina trails Rice by less than a point, he leads the next closest challenger, State Representative Russel Fry, by nearly ten points. Allen may lack Trump’s endorsement, but he does list endorsements on his website from prominent conservatives Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk.
South Carolina CD7 Tom Rice 19.18%
Graham Allen 18.54%
Russel Fry 8.67%
The Field 14.12%
This report was specific to Republican primaries in red districts. It remains to be seen how Trump’s endorsement might affect swing seats for the general election, something Moyle intends to look at for his next project.
While there were a high number of undecided voters in primaries lacking a Trump endorsement, voters chose a generic Trump endorsed candidate over a candidate without one by nearly two-thirds when asked. In Washington and Wyoming, when voters were informed of Hageman and Kent’s endorsements, both climbed over 50%, enough to win their primaries outright.
This polling shows that one thing is clear, Trump’s endorsement equals a victory in just about any Republican primary.
Three Main Takeaways:
- AN IMPEACHMENT VOTE IS AN ALARM BELL
- THE TRUMP ENDORSEMENT IS A KNOCK OUT BLOW
- PRO TRUMP CANDIDATES POISED TO WIN
See the entire polling report or to learn more about this new project, please visit http://www.ThePollingProfessor.com
The Polling Professor is a nonpartisan project of Zachary Moyle, a national political operative and pollster based in Las Vegas, Nevada. Moyle has been a part of two Presidential campaigns and has worked on campaigns in 19 states. He has been quoted in over 100 different news outlets including USA Today, The Boston Globe, and The Atlantic in addition to being a guest on networks such as NPR and PBS. The goal of this new project is to engage voters and answer questions their questions about the political process with as unbiased answers as possible.
SoCo Strategies employs state of the art processes and methodologies designed to evoke people based on behaviors and outcomes. Moyle has over fifteen years of experience providing polling and data to the political community and media outlets. SoCo Strategies work helps political organizations, campaigns and cause based initiatives.